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≡ ANALYSIS & OBSERVATIONS ≡
At the first-ever World Athletics Championships held in the United States, in Eugene, Oregon in 2022, the powerful U.S. team led all nations with 33 medals, including 13 golds, nine silvers and 11 bronzes.
Competing outside the U.S. – in Paris – two years later, the U.S. Olympic track & field team, astonishingly, did even better, winning 34 medals: 14 gold, 11 silvers and nine bronzes.
This was a historic performance, in fact the best by a U.S. track & field team since the much-smaller Stockholm Games – starring Jim Thorpe – in 1912! The top U.S. Olympic T&F medal performances, counting back from Paris 2024:
● 2024: 34 medals (14-11-9) in Paris
● 1984: 40 medals (16-15-9) in Los Angeles
● 1932: 35 medals (16-13-6) in Los Angeles
● 1912: 42 medals (16-14-12) in Stockholm
● 1904: 67 medals (23-22-22) in St. Louis
● 1900: 39 medals (16-13-10) in Paris
The 1984, 1932 and 1904 totals were for Games held in the U.S., and did not have complete participation as compared with other Games. The Soviet-led boycott impacted the 1984 Games, there were only 386 athletes competing in 1932 due to the Great Depression, down 45% from 1928, and the U.S. had 196 of the 233 entries (84%) in St. Louis in 1904.
Once you remove those, this was the best performance in 112 years, since 1912 and the third-highest total in history for an Olympic Games held outside the U.S.! Only Stockholm (42 medals) and Paris 1900 (39) were ever better!
And more: Paris 2024 was the first time since Barcelona 1992 that the U.S. track & field team won more Olympic medals than the American swimmers!
What happened?
On an individual level, just more than 30% of the U.S. entries posted marks which were better than those at the Olympic Trials – that is, comparing marks in the Trials finals with the last round reached in Paris, whether heats, semis of finals – held in Eugene (again) from 21-30 June.
Where a .300 “batting average” isn’t that good in swimming, with 54 total entries, it looks a lot better in track & field across 108 entries. Overall:
● .329 at Rio 2016: 37.5 out of 114 entries were better
● .265 at Tokyo 2020: 30 out of 113 entries were better
● .306 at Paris 2024: 33 out of 108 entries were better
The improvement from Tokyo was marked, both for the men and the women (this is for events at the Stade de France and does not include any road races or walks).
● The U.S. men were very, very good. They won 17 individual medals, to 13 for the American women, and “batted” .324 vs. their Trials performances, the best since Rio:
● .421 at Rio 2016: 24.0 of 57 better
● .313 at Tokyo 2020: 17.5 out of 56 better
● .324 at Paris 2024: 17.5 out of 53 better
By event group:
● 3/9 in Sprints (100-200-400 m)
● 4/6 in Mid-distance (800-1,500 m)
● 5/9 in Distance (Steeple-5,000-10,000 m)
● 0.5/6 in Hurdles (110-400 m)
● 3/12 in Jumps (HJ-PV-LJ-TJ)
● 1/9 in Throws (SP-DT-HT-JT)
● 1/3 Combined (Decathlon)
The distance performance was the difference in Paris, with sensational results by Bryce Hoppel in the 800 m (even without a medal) and medal winners Cole Hocker and Yared Nuguse in the 1,500 m, Kenneth Rooks in the Steeple and Grant Fisher in the 5,000 m and 10,000 m. Nine of those 15 entries bettered their Trials performances at the Games.
Certainly, the men’s 4×100 m disaster was embarrassing, but it does little to take the shine off an impressive performance. That the U.S. men won 17 individual medals with only 32% of the entries bettering their Trials marks shows how difficult it is to make the U.S. team, and to re-peak a month later.
● The U.S. women lagged behind the men in bettering their Trials performance, as was true in Rio and Tokyo. But they were better, markedly better than in 2016 and 2021, winning 13 individual medals (5-4-4):
● .237 at Rio 2016: 13.5 of 57 better
● .219 at Tokyo 2020: 12.5 out of 57 better
● .287 at Paris 2024: 15.5 out of 54 better
By event group:
● 1/9 in Sprints (100-200-400 m)
● 0/6 in Mid-distance (800-1,500 m)
● 4/9 in Distance (Steeple-5,000-10,000 m)
● 3/6 in Hurdles (100-400 m)
● 5/11 in Jumps (HJ-PV-LJ-TJ)
● 1.5/10 in Throws (SP-DT-HT-JT)
● 1/3 in Combined (Heptathlon)
There were some crashes, notably Chase Jackson’s failure to qualify for the women’s shot final and only 29% of the entries bettered their Trials marks, but that was good enough for 13 medals.
The debate over Trials vs. Games performance has raged in the U.S. for decades, going back at least as far as the 1960s. Because of the mid-summer placement of the Games from 1976 on, the U.S. Trials have usually been in late June, as it was this year, from 21-30 June, about a month before the Games.
But along with trying to get the U.S. men’s 4×100 relay to run its potential – their last Olympic win was in 2000 – no one has been able to find the right solution to the problem of making the U.S. team and then having to compete at the same or higher level a month later. TSX research has shown that for track, a “.300 batting average” overall has generally produced very good Games or World Championships results.
Adding it all up:
Men:
● .421: 24.0/57 at Rio 2016
● .313: 17.5/56 at Tokyo 2020
● .324: 17.5/54 at Paris 2024
Women:
● .237: 13.5/57 at Rio 2016
● .219: 12.5/57 at Tokyo 2020
● .287: 15.5/54 at Paris 2024
Total:
● .329: 37.5/114 at Rio 2016 (32 medals)
● .265: 30.0/113 at Tokyo 2020 (26 medals)
● .306: 33.0/108 at Paris 2024 (34 medals)
There were exterior factors in Paris which helped the U.S. tracksters. Russia and Belarus were not there at all, and Ethiopia (4 medals) and Jamaica (6) were down from their usual production. Kenya won 11 medals (4-2-5), after 10 in Tokyo and 13 in Rio.
Still, Paris was a remarkable performance for American track & field, notably for the men, winning the 100-400-1,500-110 hurdles-400 hurdles and the shot put. The questions now are about the women’s performance, and how will the schedule be arranged for 2028 to try and ensure even a better outcome, notably without being able to hold the Trials at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, which is projected to still be under construction at the time.
And for those who think that a blockbuster outcome for a home Olympic Games in 2028 is a lock, consider this: the U.S. track & field team won 30 medals in Barcelona in 1992 and regressed to 23 in Atlanta in 1996. Nothing is easy.
Rich Perelman
Editor
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