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≡ ANALYSIS & OBSERVATIONS ≡
The USA Swimming Olympic team produced another sensational performance at the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris. Across 35 events in the pool, Americans led the parade of 19 medal-winning countries with 28, a total reached by only 10 countries across all sports combined in the entire Games (wow!):
● 28: United States (8-13-7)
● 19: Australia (7-9-3)
● 12: China (2-3-7)
● 8: Canada (3-2-3)
● 7: France (4-1-2)
It was the ninth straight Games in which the U.S. led the swimming total medal count and led the gold medal count. It was a tremendous performance … but somehow not quite satisfying to many observers. There are reasons to feel that way. The U.S. total of 28 was the fewest since 2004, when it also won 28.
And the gold-medal production was down significantly. In fact, the U.S. total of eight in Paris was the fewest since Seoul 1988, when a strong American women’s team had to deal with a doped-up East German squad that took 10 out of 15 women’s events.
Further, three of the American wins in Paris were on relays, so the U.S. earned five individual goals: two from Katie Ledecky in the women’s distances, Torri Huske in the women’s 100 m Butterfly, Kate Douglass in the 200 m Breaststroke and Bobby Finke with a world record in the men’s 1,500 m Freestyle.
On the men’s side, that’s the worst performance since 1956, when William Yorzyk won the men’s 200 m Fly for the only American men’s gold in swimming at the Melbourne Games.
So what happened?
In short, the most of the American team failed to replicate or improve on their performances at the U.S. Olympic Swimming in Indianapolis in June. Swimming in Lucas Oil Stadium in front of 285,202 fans across 17 sessions, seven different U.S. swimmers produced world-leading marks in seven events, but only one of those seven – Ledecky – won gold in Paris.
In fact, the American performance “batting average” at the Games, compared to the Trials, took a nosedive in Paris:
● .577 at Rio 2016 (30 better out of 52)
● .518 at Tokyo 2020 (29 better out of 56)
● .304 at Paris 2024 (17 better out of 56)
What?
Yep, more than a 200-point fall from Rio and Tokyo. Here’s how it happened:
● The U.S. men’s team had, relative to its Olympic Trials performances, a terrible Paris Games. In comparing the American performances at the Trials finals with the last round reached in Paris – whether heats, semis or finals – only four performances out of 28 were better.
That’s 14.3%. The breakdown:
● 3/12 in Freestyle (50 to 1,500 m)
● 0/4 in Backstroke (100-200 m)
● 1/4 in Breaststroke (100-200 m)
● 0/4 in Butterfly (100-200 m)
● 0/4 in Medley (200-400 m)
The only U.S. men to surpass their Indianapolis performances were Luke Hobson in the 200 m Free (bronze), Finke in the 800 m Free (silver) and 1,500 m Free (gold) and Nic Fink in the 100 m Breast (silver).
There were four world leaders from Indianapolis who combined for two bronze medals in Paris: Ryan Murphy in the 100 m Back and Carson Foster in the 400 m Medley. Murphy set a world-leading time in Indy in the 200 m Back, but was eliminated in the semifinals; same for Matt Fallon in the 200 m Breast.
● The U.S. women were better, at 46.4%, with 13 performances out of 28 better in Paris then in Indianapolis. By stroke:
● 6/12 in Freestyle (50 to 1,500 m)
● 2/4 in Backstroke (100-200 m)
● 1/4 in Breaststroke (100-200 m)
● 1/4 in Butterfly (100-200 m)
● 3/4 in Medley (200-400 m)
The world-leading performers that came out of Indianapolis had mixed results in Paris. Ledecky won the 1,500 m Free and improved her time, but Regan Smith was 0.53 off her Indy world-record time in the women’s 100 m Back and Gretchen Walsh was 0.32 off her 100 m Fly mark from the Trials finals.
Huske and Gretchen Walsh were better in the 100 m Free (silver and 8th), Erin Gemmell got a lifetime best in the 200 m Free (semifinals), Ledecky improved in both the 800 and 1,500 m Frees (golds) and Paige Madden got a lifetime best in the 800 m Free (silver).
Regan Smith and Phoebe Bacon both improved in Paris in the 200 m Back final (silver, 4th), and Douglass improved to win the 200 m Breast final, and Smith improved in the 200 m Fly final (silver). Alex Walsh improved in the 200 m Medley, but was disqualified for an illegal turn, and both Katie Grimes and Emma Weyant improved in the 400 m Medley (silver, bronze).
Adding it all up, the comparison with Rio and Tokyo are pretty stark:
Men:
● .538: 14/26 at Rio 2016
● .393: 11/28 at Tokyo 2020
● .143: 4/28 at Paris 2024
Women:
● .615: 16/26 at Rio 2016
● .643: 18/28 at Tokyo 2020
● .464: 13/28 at Paris 2024
Total:
● .577: 30/52 at Rio 2016
● .518: 29/56 at Tokyo 2020
● .304: 17/56 at Paris 2024
One of the culprits often looked to in situations like this is a change in timing of the Olympic Trials vs. the Games. But that’s not the situation here, about a month each time:
● 2024: U.S. Trials: 15-23 June ~ Games: 27 July-4 August
● 2021: U.S. Trials: 13-20 June ~ Games: 24 July-1 August
● 2016: U.S. Trials: 26 June-3 July ~ Games: 6-13 August
How did others fare? The U.S. can get some consolation from a comparison with Australia, which despite winning seven golds, took only five individual golds as well, two from Backstroke ace Kaylee McKeown.
The Australian selection system is different from the U.S. and Trials placers are not selected if they don’t meet a pre-determined cut-off standard set by Swimming Australia. Counting only performers actually selected from their Trials performances, the Dolphins also had trouble in Paris.
The Australian men surpassed their Trials performances – held the week before the U.S., from 10-15 June – just 8.0 of 25 times (.320) and the women, just 4.5 out of 24 (.188) for a “batting average” of just .255 from 12.5 out of 49.
So both federations are going to have to figure out how to swim better in temporary pools, as the Rio and Tokyo Olympic competitions were both held in newly-built aquatic centers and Paris in the Paris La Defense Arena in a temporary pool (but the U.S. Trials in Indy were also in a temporary pool). In 2028, another temporary pool will be built at SoFi Stadium.
The U.S. swimming haul of 28 medals in Paris was outstanding and comprised 22.2% of the entire U.S. medal total at the Games. But it is now possible to understand why it didn’t feel that good while it was happening. A .300 average is good in baseball, but not in swimming. Four years to change that.
Rich Perelman
Editor
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