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≡ T&FN WORLDS PREDICTIONS ≡
The picks are in from “The Bible of the Sport” since 1948, with Track & Field News releasing its top-10 projections for the 2025 World Athletics Championships that start Saturday in Tokyo (JPN).
● Men:
As usual, the U.S., the dominant force in the sport, is figured to do well, with T&FN predicting American men will win five events:
● 200 m: Noah Lyles
● 400 m: Jacory Patterson
● 100 m hurdles: Cordell Tinch
● 4×400 m: United States
● Shot: Ryan Crouser
In all, T&FN has the American men with medals in 13 events, and to win 17 medals in all.
Next best are Ethiopia and Jamaica with five medals each, then Canada, Kenya and Norway at three each. The Norwegians are projected for three wins, for Jakob Ingebrigtsen (5,000 m), Karsten Warholm (400 m hurdles) and Sander Skotheim (decathlon).
In the hot-button events, T&FN has Jamaica’s Kishane Thompson beating Lyles in the 100 and Lyles ahead of Kenny Bednarek in the 200, Emmanuel Wanyonyi (KEN) and Marco Arop (CAN) 1-2 in the 800 and Dutch sensation Niels Laros taking the 1,500 m.
Warholm is picked over Olympic champ Rai Benjamin in the 400 hurdles and Jamaica over the U.S. in the 4×100.
● Women:
The Americans have a powerful women’s squad, with eight wins projected for Tokyo:
● 100 m hurdles: Masai Russell
● 4×100 m: United States
● 4×400 m: United States
● Vault: Katie Moon
● Long Jump: Tara Davis-Woodhall
● Shot: Chase Jackson
● Discus: Valarie Allman
● Heptathlon: Anna Hall
That’s not all, however, with eight more medals predicted for a total of 16.
But Kenya will be featured, with predicted wins in the 1,500 m by Faith Kipyegon, the Steeple by Faith Cherotich and the 5,000 m and 10,000 by Olympic champ Beatrice Chebet, and eight total medals.
Great Britain is favored for six medals, including a win in the 800 m for Olympic champ Keely Hodgkinson; the Dutch are shown with five medals and a win for Femke Bol in the 400 m hurdles, and Ethiopia projects for four medals, including a marathon win for Tigst Assefa.
Sprint power Jamaica is figured only for bronzes from Shericka Jackson in the 100-200 m and runner-up to the U.S. in the 4×100 m.
Olympic 100 m champ Julien Alfred (LCA) is favored in both the 100 and 200 m over Melissa Jefferson-Wooden of the U.S. and Bol over Americans Dalilah Muhammad and Anna Cockrell.
Olympic 400 m hurdles star Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone is picked for third in the 400 m, behind Olympic champ Marileidy Paulino (DOM) and Bahrain’s Salwa Eid Naser.
● Overall:
Adding up all the medals picks – T&FN goes 10-deep in each event, but does not pick the Mixed 4×400 m since the team members aren’t known – the U.S. is expected to lead once again:
● 33: United States
● 11: Kenya
● 9: Ethiopia
● 8: Jamaica
● 8: Great Britain
● 7: Netherlands
● 5: Canada
USA Track & Field has entered an enormous, 141-athlete team for Tokyo, by far the largest of any nation. In terms of medal performance, the U.S. won 34 medals, including 14 golds (14-11-9) at the 2024 Olympic Games.
In the most recent World Championships, the American team won 29 (12-8-9) at the 2023 World Athletics Championships in Budapest (HUN) and 33 (13-9-11) at the 2022 Worlds in Eugene, Oregon.
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Those desiring a much deeper dive into each event also need to visit the T&FN site, for statistical profiles of each event by stellar statistician K. Ken Nakamura.
Not all events have been posted yet, but will be in the coming days.
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