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≡ LEDECKY AT THE SUMMIT ≡
Triple Olympic champion Rowdy Gaines, for many the voice of swimming in the U.S., has told anyone who will listen that American Freestyle superstar Katie Ledecky is the greatest female swimmer of all time.
It’s hard to argue, in view of her 13 Olympic medals (9-4-1) and 30 World Championships medals (23-6-1). But here’s another view of her career, from the standpoint of performing her best when it counts.
In baseball terms, she’s hitting .808 in the World Series. That’s impossible, right?
Not for Ledecky, now 28, who began winning Olympic medals at 15.
A thorough review of her career at the Olympic Games and World Championships reveals that Ledecky has bettered her marks from the American selection event – nationals or Olympic or Worlds trials – at the following Olympic Games or World Championships 80.8% of the time!
80.8%!
Here’s the log, using Ledecky’s time in her last round of competition at the Olympic Games or World Championships vs. her time in the U.S. nationals or trials meet (AR = American Record; WR = World Record):
Olympic Games:
● 2012/800 m Free: 8:14.63 (1st; AR) at the Games vs. 8:19.78 at Trials (1/1)
● 2016/200 m Free: 1:53.73 (1st) vs. 1:54.88
● 2016/400 m Free: 3:56.46 (1st; WR) vs. 3:58.98
● 2016/800 m Free: 8:04.79 (1st; WR) vs. 8:10.32 (3/3)
● 2020/200 m Free: 1:55.21 (5th) vs. 1:55.11
● 2020/400 m Free: 3:57.36 (2nd) vs. 4:01.27
● 2020/800 m Free: 8:12.57 (1st) vs. 8:14.62
● 2020/1500 m Free: 15:37.34 (1st) vs. 15:40.50 (3/4)
● 2024/400 m Free: 4:00.86 (3rd) vs 3:58.35
● 2024/800 m Free: 8:11.04 (1st) vs. 8:14.12
● 2024/1500 m Free: 15:30.02 (1st) vs. 15:37.35 (2/3)
In four Olympic Games, Ledecky has been faster than her Trials time in nine of 11 events: 81.8%.
World Aquatics Championships:
● 2013/400 m Free: 3:59.82 (1st; AR) at Worlds vs. 4:04.05 at Trials
● 2013/800 m Free: 8:13.86 (1st; WR) vs. 8:22.41
● 2013/1500 m Free: 15:36.73 (1st; WR) vs. 15:47.15 (3/3)
● 2017/200 m Free: 1:55.18 (=2nd) vs. 1:54.84
● 2017/400 m Free: 3:58.34 (1st) vs. 3:58.44
● 2017/800 m Free: 8:12.68 (1st) vs. 8:11.50 (1/3)
● 2017/1500 m Free: 15:31.82 (1st); did not swim at Trials
● 2022/400 m Free: 3:58.15 (1st) vs. 3:59.52
● 2022/800 m Free: 8:08.04 (1st) vs. 8:09.27
● 2022/1500 m Free: 15:30.15 (1st) vs. 15:38.99 (3/3)
● 2023/400 m Free: 3:58.73 (2nd) vs. 4:00.45
● 2023/800 m Free: 8:08.07 (1st) vs. 8:07.07
● 2023/1500 m Free: 15:26.27 (1st) vs. 15:29.64 (2/3)
● 2025/400 m Free: 3:58.49 (3rd) vs. 3:58.56
● 2025/800 m Free: 8:05.62 (1st) vs. 8:05.76
● 2025/1500 m Free: 15:26.44 (1st) vs. 15:36.76 (3/3)
So in five Worlds in which the U.S. had a selection meet, Ledecky bettered her time at the Worlds in 12 of 15 finals, or 80.0%.
Missing in the Worlds list are the 2015 and 2019 editions, for which there was no single U.S. selection meet, but a USA Swimming formula. Her Worlds performances there:
● 2015/200 m Free: 1:55.16 (1st, seasonal best); world no. 4 for 2015
● 2015/400 m Free: 3:59.13 (1st, seasonal best); world no. 1
● 2015/800 m Free: 8:07.39 (1st; WR); world no. 1
● 2015/1500 m Free:15:25.48 (1st; WR); world no. 1
● 2019/400 m Free: 3:59.97 (2nd, third-best in season); world no. 2 for 2019
● 2019/800 m Free: 8:13.58 (1st; second-best in season); world no. 1
● 2019/1500 m Free: 15:48.90 (1st in heats, withdrew due to illness); world no. 1
Adding the Olympic (9/11) and Worlds (12/15) performances together, Ledecky was better at the Olympic Games or Worlds 21 times out of 26 finals or 80.8% (.808 for baseball fans), at the highest, most pressure-packed level of competition, the championship level – the World Series – of international swimming.
There’s no doubt she would have been 4/4 in 2015; Ledecky was ill during the 2019 Worlds but would have been 2/3 at worst if healthy, both stellar and if added in, would project to 27 times better out of 33, or 81.8% (.818), even better.
Now, how great is this? Let’s compare what Ledecky has done to her teammates, in terms of “batting average” of recent Olympic Games or Worlds performances compared to Trials times (percentage of Games/Worlds performances better than at Trials):
● 2020 Games: U.S. batted .518 overall; women batted .643
● 2022 Worlds: U.S. batted .538 overall; women batted .545
● 2023 Worlds: U.S. batted .333 overall; women batted .206
● 2024 Games: U.S. batted .304 overall; women batted .464
● 2025 Worlds: U.S. batted .306 overall; women batted .387
Remember that Ledecky’s successes are included in these tabulations! Astounding.
Going further, she’s won 10 individual medals (8 gold) in 11 Olympic finals (90.9%) and an astounding 22 individual medals in 22 World Championships finals (that’s 100%!), including 18 golds, with a combined medal percentage of 96.7% across 14 years!
Gaines is right. She really is the greatest, especially when it counts the most.
Rich Perelman
Editor
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