Time for the main event: the swimming portion of the FINA World Championships in Gwangju (KOR), starting on Sunday morning. And for the world’s dominant power, the United States, it’s hard to know what to expect.
Sure, superstars like Katie Ledecky and Lilly King are in Korea, ready to go. But this U.S. team was not picked a few weeks ago, with the swimmers selected at the height of their powers. Instead, following a tradition of recent years, the Worlds team in the year before the Olympic Games was selected at the U.S. Nationals of the year prior, in this case, 2018.
Further, only the American team itself knows what kind of shape it’s in, after many weeks of heavy training and then tapering for its test in Korea. Another dominant performance as in 2017, when the U.S. stomped its way to 38 medals (18-10-10), with Australia (1-5-4), China (3-3-4) and Russia (3-3-4) at 10 each?
By contrast, in 2015, the U.S. led the medal table with 23 (8-10-5), with Australia (7-3-6) at 16 and China (5-1-7) at 13.
So let’s look ahead to the women’s events, with the top five or so in the world list (accounting for those not entered) and the prospects:
● 50 m Freestyle:
1. 23.78 Sarah Sjostrom (SWE)
2. 24.00 Cate Campbell (AUS)
3. 24.08 Pernille Blume (DEN)
4. 24.17 Bronte Campbell (AUS)
5. 24.25 Emma McKeon (AUS) ~ not entered
6. 24.32 Maria Kameneva (RUS)
7. 24.34 Simone Manuel (USA)
● 100 m Free:
1. 52.12 Cate Campbell (AUS)
2. 52.41 Emma McKeon (AUS)
3. 52.76 Sarah Sjostrom (SWE)
4. 52.84 Bronte Campbell (AUS) ~ not entered
5. 53.18 Shayna Jack (AUS) ~ not entered
6. 53.26 Taylor Ruck (CAN)
7. 63.29 Charlotte Bonnet (FRA)
● 200 m Free:
1. 1:54.30 Ariarne Titmus (AUS)
2. 1:54.55 Emma McKeon (AUS)
3. 1:55.39 Sarah Sjostrom (SWE)
4. 1:55.42 Federico Pellegrini (ITA)
5. 1:55.78 Kate Ledecky (USA)
The sprint event have been owned by Sjostrom, who swept just about everything in sight at thje FINA Champions Swim Series earlier this year in the Freestyle sprints and Butterfly events. She will get a severe argument from Australia’s Cate Campbell and Dane Pernille Blume, and maybe American Simone Manuel. Ledecky will contest the 200 m in a great test of her speed at the lower end of her range.
● 400 m Free:
1. 3:59.28 Katie Ledecky (USA)
2. 3:59.35 Ariarne Titmus (AUS)
3. 4:03.29 Bingjie Li (CHN)
4. 4:03.77 Jianjiahe Wang (CHN)
5. 4:03.86 Leah Smith (USA)
● 800 m Free:
1. 8:10.70 Katie Ledecky (USA)
2. 8:14.64 Jianjiahe Wang (CHN)
3. 8:16.33 Leah Smith (USA)
4. 8:18.23 Ariarne Titmus (AUS)
5. 8:21.20 Simona Quadarella (ITA)
● 1,500 m Free:
1. 15:45.59 Katie Ledecky (USA)
2. 15:46.69 Jianjiahe Wang (CHN)
3. 15:48.84 Simona Quadarella (ITA)
4. 15:51.68 Delfina Pignatello (ITA)
5. 15:55.25 Erica Sullivan (USA)
Ledecky is the favorite in all three of the longer-distance Frees, but one of the highlights of the meet could come on Sunday in the 400 m free final. Ledecky owns the world record (3:56.46 ‘16) and the Worlds meet record (3:58.34 ‘17) and both could fall in Gwangju. Ledecky also owns the longer distances and is an overwhelming favorite to win both, but the progress of China’s Li and Wang will be closely watched.
● 50 m Backstroke:
1. 27.36 Etienne Medeiros (BRA)
2. 27.58 Anastasia Fesikova (RUS)
3. 27.60 Yuanhui Fu (CHN)
4. 27.65 Kaylee McKeown (AUS)
5. 27.66 Maria Kameneva (RUS) ~ not entered
6. 27.74 Daria Vaskina (RUS)
● 100 m Back:
1. 58.16 Kylie Masse (CAN)
2. 58.45 Regan Smith (USA) ~ not entered
3. 58.55 Taylor Ruck (CAN)
4. 58.73 Olivia Smoliga (USA)
5. 58.92 Margherita Panziera (ITA)
6. 59.05 Kathleen Baker (USA)
● 200 m Back:
1. 2:05.72 Margherita Panziera (ITA)
2. 2:05.92 Kylie Masse (CAN)
3. 2:06.35 Kaylee McKeown (AUS)
4. 2:06.47 Regan Smith (USA)
5. 2:06.70 Taylor Ruck (CAN)
Who’s in shape? Are Canada’s Masse and Ruck, both brilliant when right, ready to win? Baker set the world record in the 100 m Back (58.00) last year, but hasn’t been as fast in 2019. And McKeown? These events could be wide open for others.
● 50 m Breaststroke:
1. 29.63 Lilly King (USA)
2. 29.93 Yuliya Efimova (RUS)
3. 30.13 Benedetta Pilato (ITA)
4. 30.40 Molly Hannis (USA) ~ not entered
5. 30.42 Jhennifer Conceicao (BRA)
6. 30.45 Martina Carraro (ITA)
● 100 m Breast:
1. 1:05.13 Lilly King (USA)
2. 1:05.51 Yuliya Efimova (RUS)
3. 1:06.03 Annie Lazor (USA) ~ not entered
4. 1:06.32 Tatjana Schoenmaker (RSA)
5. 1:06.34 Anna Belousova (RUS)
6. 1:06.44 Reona Aoki (JPN)
● 200 m Breast:
1. 2:20.77 Annie Lazor (USA) ~ not entered
2. 2:21.07 Evgeniya Chikukova (RUS) ~ not entered
3. 2:21.39 Lilly King (USA)
4. 2:21.59 Yuliya Efimova (RUS)
5. 2:22.53 Shiwen Ye (CHN)
6. 2:22.63 Sydney Pickrem (CAN)
7. 2:22.82 Kelsey Wog (CAN)
The expectation is another set of showdowns between King and Efimova; the American won all three in the FINA Champions Series in Indianapolis. King already owns the world records in the 50 m (29.40 ‘17) and 100 m (1:04.13 ‘17) events and has improved dramatically in the 200 m.
● 50 m Butterfly:
1. 25.32 Sarah Sjostrom (SWE)
2. 25.65 Farida Osman (EGY)
3. 25.68 Holly Barratt (AUS)
4. 25.84 Louise Hansson (AUS)
5. 25.85 Arina Surkova (RUS)
● 100 m Fly:
1. 56.42 Sarah Sjostrom (SWE)
2. 56.85 Emma McKeon (AUS)
3. 57.04 Margaret Macneil (CAN)
4. 57.35 Louise Hansson (SWE)
5. 57.39 Anastasiya Shkurdai (BLR)
● 200 m Fly:
1. 2:06.40 Hali Flickinger (USA)
2. 2:06.62 Katinka Hosszu (HUN)
3. 2:06.67 Katie Drabot (USA)
4. 2:07.21 Suzuka Hasegawa (JPN)
5. 2:07.31 Franziska Hentke (GER)
Sjostrom blew away everyone in the 50/100 m in the FINA Champions Series and it is hard to see anyone beating her in Gwangju. One of the Australians, perhaps? Flickinger’s world leader came on 1 June at the FINA Champions Series and won the Pan-Pacific title in the event last year’ she’s never won an individual Worlds medal.
● 200 m Individual Medley:
1. 2:08.28 Katinka Hosszu (HUN)
2. 2:08.61 Sydney Pickrem (CAN)
3. 2:08.64 Rika Omoto (JPN)
4. 2:09.14 Yui Ohashi (JPN)
5. 2:09.24 Shiwen Ye (CHN)
● 400 m Medley:
1. 4:32.52 Katinka Hosszu (HUN)
2. 4:33.02 Yui Ohashi (JPN)
3. 4:35.15 Sydney Pickrem (CAN)
4. 4:36.09 Mireia Belmonte (ESP)
5. 4:36.98 Aimee Wilmott (GBR)
Hosszu has been just about unbeatable in these events, taking the double at the 2013-15-17 Worlds and in Rio in 2016. She’s expected to win here too. But watch these Japanese entries for a clue to the possibility of making a challenge in Tokyo next year, when Hosszu will be 31.
You don’t see too many Americans on these lists and U.S. athletes, for the most part, have been quiet this year. But there will be new stars out of these Championships thanks to the combination of raw talent and having had the team selected a year ago … and not having to peak twice for a selection meet and then the Worlds.
The U.S. and Australia have the most depth and should be the top finishers in the relays.
NBC’s Olympic Channel has coverage from Gwangju, usually at 7 a.m. Eastern time; the schedule is here. The line-timing site for the Worlds is excellent; it’s here.
